Assessment Demonstrates How Climate Change is Increasing Frequency and Amount of Precipitation and Number of Hot Days

Uses the Best Available, Up-to-Date Models to Produce Climate Projections for the City 

April 29, 2024

New York, NY – The Mayor’s Office of Climate & Environmental Justice (MOCEJ) today announced the release of NPCC4, the New York City Panel on Climate Change’s (NPCC) fourth full climate assessment report for New York City. NPCC4 confirms New York City will be warmer, with more extreme heat events, and wetter, with growing risks from intense rainfall and inland flooding. For the first time, the report also has a cross-cutting focus on the equity implications of climate change. As the recently released Environmental Justice NYC Report shows, low-income communities and communities of color are disproportionately impacted by environmental inequities, due to legacies of discriminatory actions. NPCC4 provides insight on climate displacement risks as well as the negative effects that could come with adapting to climate change. These projections inform the city’s ongoing efforts to ensure that New York City is prepared to withstand and emerge stronger from the threat of climate change.

“Excessive heat, rain, tides, and pollution threaten the foundational strength of New York City, a foundation critically necessary for strong housing, strong schools and a strong economy,” said Deputy Mayor for Operations Meera Joshi. “We must rise to the occasion as a city – making sure every dollar spent towards infrastructure goes further, and every foot of grass, every tree, every brick, does double duty to account for rain and heat. Through daily discipline we will meet our climate goals and ensure the bright NYC future that our children and grandchildren deserve.”

“As New York City responds to the impacts of climate change, we must be guided by the latest data, and the NPCC findings will be used by city agencies to inform our policy and programs,” said New York City Chief Climate Officer and New York City Department of Environmental Protection Commissioner Rohit T. Aggarwala. “The panel’s variety of expertise, including in architecture, design, and demography, has been essential to creating this important work, and we look forward to many more years of collaboration.”

“We are grateful to the New York City Panel on Climate Change for more than 15 years of rigorous research that helps ground city climate policy in data,” said Mayor’s Office of Climate & Environmental Justice Executive Director Elijah Hutchinson. “The best available science on climate helps advance our goals to further environmental justice and improve health for all New Yorkers. This data will also serve as a foundation for city construction projects as we work to make our infrastructure more resilient.”

los NPCC is an independent advisory body appointed by the mayor to assess the current and future impacts of climate change on New York City. They also make recommendations on climate projections for the region, informed by the best available science. 

Key findings from NPCC4 include:

Climate Science:

• The number of hot days and the frequency and duration of heat waves are expected to increase.
• Sea level is projected to rise.

Flooding: 

• Risks from rainfall, river-based, coastal, and groundwater flooding will increase because of sea level rise and intensified rainfall.
• To handle increased amounts of water, more grey and green infrastructure and natural and nature-based solutions are needed.

Equity: 

• Climate displacement is an important dimension of social vulnerability to climate change; the NPCC proposes a climate displacement and social vulnerability score to better measure the risks of climate displacement. 
• The cost burdens of climate adaptation (such as higher energy costs, insurance premiums, and relocation) affect people differently – and can result in increased displacement risks.

Health:

• Climate change-related health risks are a threat to all New Yorkers, but especially those most vulnerable because of age, poor health, racial and social inequities, and social isolation.
• Heat waves are, on average, the deadliest type of extreme weather in New York City.

Energy & Energy Insecurity: 

• Progress reducing energy use and greenhouse gas emissions to meet the city and state’s ambitious goals must be approached deliberately, considering energy insecurity and health. 
• Energy insecurity can harm public health directly – via inadequate heating or cooling, indoor air pollution, and reduced reliability for medical devices and refrigeration – and indirectly when high energy costs reduce spending on other essential items like healthcare and food.

The NPCC was codified in Local Law 42 of 2012 with a mandate to provide an authoritative and actionable source of scientific information on future climate change and its potential impacts. The full panel and its leadership team were selected to ensure a diversity of backgrounds, research disciplines, and fields of technical practice. The NPCC is reviewed by an advisory board of city agencies, and MOCEJ coordinates to make sure other reports and policies integrate the latest scientific information from the NPCC report.

According to the co-chairs of the NPCC4 report, “NPCC4’s findings emphasize the significant and continuing risks that New York City faces as a result of climate change. These include a future climate that will be warmer – with more extreme heat events, and wetter – with growing risks from intense rainfall and inland flooding. NPCC4 paid particular attention to how these changes may affect human health, vulnerable communities, energy security, and the city’s future. Addressing the ongoing climate risks that the city faces while also fostering a more resilient, equitable, and adaptable future will require multiple levels of cross-sectoral investment, innovation, and transformation.”

The NPCC members are:

• Dra. Deborah Balk (copresidenta), Profesor de Asuntos Públicos, Escuela Marxe de Asuntos Públicos e Internacionales, Baruch College en la Universidad de la Ciudad de Nueva York (CUNY); y Profesor, Economía y Sociología Ph.D. Programas, Centro de Graduados de CUNY
• Dr. Christian Braneon (copresidente), Científico Investigador, Baruch College en la Universidad de la Ciudad de Nueva York (CUNY); codirector de la Red de Ciudades Justas Climáticas y de Justicia Ambiental del Instituto de la Tierra de la Universidad de Columbia; Jefe de Justicia Climática, Carbon Direct
• Dr. Robin Leichenko (copresidente), Profesor y Catedrático de Geografía, Universidad de Rutgers; y codirector, Rutgers Climate Institute
• Joel Towers (copresidente), Profesor de Arquitectura y Diseño Sostenible, Escuela de Diseño Parsons; Director, Tishman Environment and Design Center; y profesor universitario, New School University
• Dr. Ana Baptista, Assistant Professor of Professional Practice, Environmental Policy and Sustainability Management Graduate Program, New School University; and Associate Director, Tishman Environment and Design Center, New School University
• Dra. Sheila Foster, Scott K. Ginsburg Profesor de Derecho y Política Urbana, Universidad de Georgetown
• Dr. Radley Horton, profesor de investigación, Observatorio de la Tierra Lamont-Doherty de la Universidad de Columbia
• Dra. Kim Knowlton, Senior Scientist, Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC); Deputy Director, NRDC’s Science Center; and Assistant Professor of Environmental Health Sciences, Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health
• Dra. Nicole Maher, científico costero sénior, The Nature Conservancy
• Dr. Thomas mate, Profesor Titular, División de Ciencias de la Salud Ambiental, Escuela de Salud Pública Mailman de la Universidad de Columbia
• Dr. Pedro Marcotulio, Profesor de Geografía y Director del Instituto de Ciudades Sostenibles, Hunter College; Asociado del Centro de Investigación Científica Avanzada (ASRC) de la Universidad de la Ciudad de Nueva York (CUNY); y miembro de la facultad, Programa de Ciencias Ambientales y de la Tierra, Centro de Graduados de CUNY
• Dra. Katherine McComas, Profesor, Departamento de Comunicación, Universidad de Cornell
• Dr. Timón McPhearson, Profesor, Ecología Urbana y Director, Laboratorio de Sistemas Urbanos, New School University
• Dr. Franco Montalto, Profesor y Director, Laboratorio de Ingeniería de Recursos Hídricos Sostenibles, Universidad de Drexel; Fundador y Presidente, eDesign Dynamics LLC; y Director, Centro de América del Norte, Red de Investigación de Cambio Climático Urbano (UCCRN)
• Dr. Richard Moss, Senior Research Scientist, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory’s Joint Global Change Research Institute, University of Maryland
• doctor philip orton, Profesor Asociado de Investigación, Ingeniería Oceánica, Instituto de Tecnología Stevens
• Dra. Bernice Rosenzweig, Miembro de la Facultad, Ciencias Ambientales, Sarah Lawrence College
• Dr. John Kuo Wei Tchen, Clement A. Price Chair of Public History and Humanities and Director, Clement Price Institute on Ethnicity, Culture and the Modern Experience, Rutgers University – Newark
• Dr. Gernot Wagner, Economista del Clima, Escuela de Negocios de Columbia

CONTACT: Kimberly Winston, [email protected], 917-853-6832